Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $333,867$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.88 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{344,753.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 81.9)}}\) (asimptote \(344,753.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,229$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(530 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,000.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 89.7)}}\) (asimptote \(15,000.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $98,377$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $319,493$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(7.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{356,310.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 94.9)}}\) (asimptote \(356,310.0\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,069$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(110 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,725.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 88.6)}}\) (asimptote \(7,725.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,204$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,926,824$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(3.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,630,751.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 102.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,630,751.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $74,133$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(3.69 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,505.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 82.6)}}\) (asimptote \(82,505.7\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $529,266$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $69,570$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(8.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67,120.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 68.4)}}\) (asimptote \(67,120.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,130$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(565 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,754.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 64.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,754.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,956$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $50,867$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(536 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79,715.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 110.1)}}\) (asimptote \(79,715.5\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,898$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(25 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,447.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 129.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,447.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,150$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $154,277$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{491,209.7}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 138.0)}}\) (asimptote \(491,209.7\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,787$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(61.7 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,034.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 178.0)}}\) (asimptote \(105,034.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $82,681$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $106,910$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(679 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{332,663.6}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 135.7)}}\) (asimptote \(332,663.6\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,968$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(69.6 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,211.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 152.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,211.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,475$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $801$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{953.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 107.6)}}\) (asimptote \(953.7\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $18$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(0.137 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20.7}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 85.1)}}\) (asimptote \(20.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $240$ on 2020-07-14
